Friday, July 1, 2011
Friday, May 6, 2011
2011 Kentucky Derby
“Wide open race” may quite possibly be the most over-used phrase on the first Saturday in May – every year. This year is no different, and yet it is. There is no clear cut favorite, a case can be made for almost every single horse in the field, and with the scratch of last year’s juvenile champion Uncle Mo…well it just goes to show that it’s a tough road to Churchill.
That said, the usual saws apply. Look for a horse coming up to a good race, not one that may bounce off an extreme effort last time. Are they training well and holding their weight at Churchill? Do they have a couple of races over a mile and an eighth on their resume? What does their pedigree suggest (i.e. speed bred to speed on top of speed last gen probably does not bode well to go a mile and a quarter). Does the trainer have some experience in the big races (not necessarily need to have won, but has handled the pressure before, and not let armchair quarterbacking change their gameplan). Lastly – who looks like the now horse that just grabs you visually ?
In post position order:
Archarcharch: Won the Arkansas Derby, and is sired by a horse I loved in his Derby year – Arch, out of a Woodman mare. Honestly though, this one makes me go ‘meh’ . Will finish in the first half of the field.
Brilliant Speed: Won the Bluegrass. By Dynaformer out of a Gone West mare. Me thinks his name says it all. *However* if it rains at Churchill Fri/Sat – you should consider keeping the best of the speed horses in your exotics, as speed holds in the slop there. If the track comes up sloppy – use this horse.
Twicetheappeal: Won the Sunland Derby (NM). By Successful Appeal out of a Cormorant mare. BooBoo Borel gets the mount – which may be the best part of this entry. Nope.
Stay Thirsty: Won the Gotham. Beautifully bred; by Bernardini out of a Storm Bird mare. This one may be a live one at good price. I’d see what the track condition is – but I like this horse.
Decisive Moment: Won the Jean Lafitte stakes (second in the Spiral to Animal Kingdom). By With Distinction out of a Dehere mare. Nope.
Comma to the Top: Won the Cashcall Futurity, Generous and Real Quiet Stakes. By Bwana Charlie out of a Stormy Atlantic mare. Um…PVal rides…and I say possible Rose Colored Glasses award here. Back of pack.
Pants on Fire: Won the Louisiana Derby. By Jump Start out of a Capetown mare. I think his pants may be the only thing on fire. He *would* move up in the mud/slop – but I don’t see him winning or even in first half of field.
Dialed In: This is everyone’s hot horse. He won the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes. Beautifully bred by Mineshaft out of a Storm Cat mare. Has the hot rider and trainer hand also going for him. He and Shackleford were 1-2 in FL. So if you like one, you pretty much have to like the other. He *is* the morning line favorite – and friends don’t typically let friends bet the chalk. However, I think it would be foolish to leave him out. Top 4.
Derby Kitten: just won the Coolmore Lexington. By Kitten’s Joy out of a Menifee mare. Nope.
Twinspired: won the WEBN Stakes. By Harlan’s Holiday out of an El Prado mare. Nope.
Master of Hounds: ran second in the UAE Derby. Regally bred by Kingmambo out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. The Euros keep bringing over horses trying to win the Derby, and keep missing. This horse is certainly bred to go the distance, has a US rider w/Garret Gomez – and Aidan O’Brien is one of the great trainers. I can see this horse getting a piece of the Tri or Super fecta pie – but not the win. As lovely has he is, better have tried from over the way, and failed. He’s never run on dirt before – not sure the Derby would be my choice for first start.
Santiva: Won the KY Jockey Club stakes and was second in the Risen Star to Mucho Macho Man. By Giant’s Causeway out of a Smarten mare. Will split the pack.
Mucho Macho Man: Won the Risen Star. By Macho Uno out of a Ponche mare. Mid-pack.
Shackleford: finished second to Dialed In in the Florida Derby. Big old chestnut by Forestry out of an Unbridled mare. Another hot horse that has a lot of people on his bandwagon. Move up in the mud/slop, but I feel like he’s a mid-pack finisher.
Midnight Interlude: Won the Santa Anita Derby. By War Chant out of Groom Dancer. Nope.
Animal Kingdom: Won the Spiral Stakes. By Leroidesanimeaux out of an Acatenango mare. He’s never run on dirt before – not sure the Derby would be my choice for first start, but he’s been training like a…well…animal.
Soldat: Won the Fountain of Youth and With Anticipation stakes. By War Front out of a Coronado’s Quest mare. Have him in my top 4, and moves up in the mud.
Nehro: 2nd in the AK ( to Archarcharch) and LA (to Pants on Fire) Derbies. By Mineshaft out of an Afleet mare. Had a ho-hum final work up to the race – but looks fantastic physically – and I would use him in my top 4.
Watch Me Go: Won the Tampa Bay Derby. By West Acre out of a Deputy Minister mare. Nope – another Rose Colored Glasses contestant.
Top 4:
Stay Thirsty
Dialed In
Nehro
Soldat
(if it rains and is sloppy – must also toss Brilliant Speed in here)
If you don’t like those – how about (as in…these have a good shot if luck fails the top 4):
Shakleford
Archarcharch
Animal Kingdom (mostly because I love his breeding – not so much that he hasn’t raced on dirt)
If you really wanted to – you could fabricate a case for:
Derby Kitten
Master of Hounds
Santiva
Mucho Macho Man
Midnight Interlude
Rose Colored Glasses award:
Twicetheappeal
Decisive Moment
Comma to the Top
Pants on Fire
Twinspired
Watch Me Go
And of course – I may be completely wrong and you should go to the windows on everyone I picked to lose! Here’s to a great…and SAFE..Derby Day for the horses!
That said, the usual saws apply. Look for a horse coming up to a good race, not one that may bounce off an extreme effort last time. Are they training well and holding their weight at Churchill? Do they have a couple of races over a mile and an eighth on their resume? What does their pedigree suggest (i.e. speed bred to speed on top of speed last gen probably does not bode well to go a mile and a quarter). Does the trainer have some experience in the big races (not necessarily need to have won, but has handled the pressure before, and not let armchair quarterbacking change their gameplan). Lastly – who looks like the now horse that just grabs you visually ?
In post position order:
Archarcharch: Won the Arkansas Derby, and is sired by a horse I loved in his Derby year – Arch, out of a Woodman mare. Honestly though, this one makes me go ‘meh’ . Will finish in the first half of the field.
Brilliant Speed: Won the Bluegrass. By Dynaformer out of a Gone West mare. Me thinks his name says it all. *However* if it rains at Churchill Fri/Sat – you should consider keeping the best of the speed horses in your exotics, as speed holds in the slop there. If the track comes up sloppy – use this horse.
Twicetheappeal: Won the Sunland Derby (NM). By Successful Appeal out of a Cormorant mare. BooBoo Borel gets the mount – which may be the best part of this entry. Nope.
Stay Thirsty: Won the Gotham. Beautifully bred; by Bernardini out of a Storm Bird mare. This one may be a live one at good price. I’d see what the track condition is – but I like this horse.
Decisive Moment: Won the Jean Lafitte stakes (second in the Spiral to Animal Kingdom). By With Distinction out of a Dehere mare. Nope.
Comma to the Top: Won the Cashcall Futurity, Generous and Real Quiet Stakes. By Bwana Charlie out of a Stormy Atlantic mare. Um…PVal rides…and I say possible Rose Colored Glasses award here. Back of pack.
Pants on Fire: Won the Louisiana Derby. By Jump Start out of a Capetown mare. I think his pants may be the only thing on fire. He *would* move up in the mud/slop – but I don’t see him winning or even in first half of field.
Dialed In: This is everyone’s hot horse. He won the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes. Beautifully bred by Mineshaft out of a Storm Cat mare. Has the hot rider and trainer hand also going for him. He and Shackleford were 1-2 in FL. So if you like one, you pretty much have to like the other. He *is* the morning line favorite – and friends don’t typically let friends bet the chalk. However, I think it would be foolish to leave him out. Top 4.
Derby Kitten: just won the Coolmore Lexington. By Kitten’s Joy out of a Menifee mare. Nope.
Twinspired: won the WEBN Stakes. By Harlan’s Holiday out of an El Prado mare. Nope.
Master of Hounds: ran second in the UAE Derby. Regally bred by Kingmambo out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. The Euros keep bringing over horses trying to win the Derby, and keep missing. This horse is certainly bred to go the distance, has a US rider w/Garret Gomez – and Aidan O’Brien is one of the great trainers. I can see this horse getting a piece of the Tri or Super fecta pie – but not the win. As lovely has he is, better have tried from over the way, and failed. He’s never run on dirt before – not sure the Derby would be my choice for first start.
Santiva: Won the KY Jockey Club stakes and was second in the Risen Star to Mucho Macho Man. By Giant’s Causeway out of a Smarten mare. Will split the pack.
Mucho Macho Man: Won the Risen Star. By Macho Uno out of a Ponche mare. Mid-pack.
Shackleford: finished second to Dialed In in the Florida Derby. Big old chestnut by Forestry out of an Unbridled mare. Another hot horse that has a lot of people on his bandwagon. Move up in the mud/slop, but I feel like he’s a mid-pack finisher.
Midnight Interlude: Won the Santa Anita Derby. By War Chant out of Groom Dancer. Nope.
Animal Kingdom: Won the Spiral Stakes. By Leroidesanimeaux out of an Acatenango mare. He’s never run on dirt before – not sure the Derby would be my choice for first start, but he’s been training like a…well…animal.
Soldat: Won the Fountain of Youth and With Anticipation stakes. By War Front out of a Coronado’s Quest mare. Have him in my top 4, and moves up in the mud.
Nehro: 2nd in the AK ( to Archarcharch) and LA (to Pants on Fire) Derbies. By Mineshaft out of an Afleet mare. Had a ho-hum final work up to the race – but looks fantastic physically – and I would use him in my top 4.
Watch Me Go: Won the Tampa Bay Derby. By West Acre out of a Deputy Minister mare. Nope – another Rose Colored Glasses contestant.
Top 4:
Stay Thirsty
Dialed In
Nehro
Soldat
(if it rains and is sloppy – must also toss Brilliant Speed in here)
If you don’t like those – how about (as in…these have a good shot if luck fails the top 4):
Shakleford
Archarcharch
Animal Kingdom (mostly because I love his breeding – not so much that he hasn’t raced on dirt)
If you really wanted to – you could fabricate a case for:
Derby Kitten
Master of Hounds
Santiva
Mucho Macho Man
Midnight Interlude
Rose Colored Glasses award:
Twicetheappeal
Decisive Moment
Comma to the Top
Pants on Fire
Twinspired
Watch Me Go
And of course – I may be completely wrong and you should go to the windows on everyone I picked to lose! Here’s to a great…and SAFE..Derby Day for the horses!
Friday, January 28, 2011
Random Thoughts on a Friday
1) How did Chris Brown and Cee Lo Green know to capture my thoughts EXactly in song? "Deuces" and "F**k You" have basically been on perma-playback for me - they actually make me LOL. Deuces to AC, SS, and a few others. FU to a few more...hahaha..makes me laugh thinking about it. Does that make me a bad person .
2) Pink's "Sober" is another awesome song on perma-play. Don't ask, but 'yes'.
3) Even when work is at it's most insane (oh wait - that's like every freakin' day) - going to ride The Mighty gets the world back spinning on its axis correctly. I can't imagine what a "normal" life would have been like, and happy I've never been cooerced into finding out.
4) My goal is to use this in a meeting: "I'm not here to brainstorm, I'm here to clean up your mess".
5) I can't wait for Emerald to open for racing! I miss my friends - and just haven't had time to get to Portland to see them.
6) Life is pretty good. I have cool friends, an awesome horse, my family around me, a job, some cool outside projects in the fire, and no encumbrances. What more can a person ask for?!
7) Promo possibility:
Every Man Needs a Tool Kit - featuring Fresh Balls, Dry Goods, condoms, lube, and a couple of toys. Yes? No?
2) Pink's "Sober" is another awesome song on perma-play. Don't ask, but 'yes'.
3) Even when work is at it's most insane (oh wait - that's like every freakin' day) - going to ride The Mighty gets the world back spinning on its axis correctly. I can't imagine what a "normal" life would have been like, and happy I've never been cooerced into finding out.
4) My goal is to use this in a meeting: "I'm not here to brainstorm, I'm here to clean up your mess".
5) I can't wait for Emerald to open for racing! I miss my friends - and just haven't had time to get to Portland to see them.
6) Life is pretty good. I have cool friends, an awesome horse, my family around me, a job, some cool outside projects in the fire, and no encumbrances. What more can a person ask for?!
7) Promo possibility:
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
And I Quote
Every now and then, someone here at work says something so eminently quotable - it has to go on my whiteboard. Sometimes its even me. So, in the absence of anything truly compelling to write (or maybe I'm just lazy - you decide) - here are a few notable quotes. Names have NOT been changed as no one here is innocent.
We start off with a few from Adriane:
"If you were 63, would you be awake at 9:30 in the morning?"
Well Adriane, I don't know? Is 63 the new 43? And if so - I guess I would be at my job writing quotes on the whiteboard at 9:30 in the morning.
"No way he's riding his hog in this weather!"
Um....I will assume she meant motorcycle, but given we actually had to PASS A LAW in this state against certain 'activities' with animals - I wouldn't be all that sure.
"Mmmmmmm.....sweet little biscuit"
I don't even care to speculate.
Colin checks in with a couple:
"David Brooks is going down"
How on earth he would know what David Brooks is doing at any given moment is a mystery to me.
"I don't want Tony Danza passed around like some floozy"
Um...not knowing Tony's personal proclivities, I'm at a loss as to what Mr. Danza himself would want.
Oscar also had a couple of doozies:
"Ahhh..the pleasure pack. Brings back fond memories."
almost immediately followed up with "I wonder how big it is?"
Well Oscar - again, all speculation aside......
But the all time winnner has to be Mr. Jim Barnes. Ah how we love ya Jimmy!
"Oh yeah, you haven't see the big man move."
Apparently not.
"Time to butter up!"
And you wonder what we do all day at work.
"Grind 'em down 'til they can't feed their children."
I don't know what it means, but I like the concept.
"I'm gonna pop like a hemmorhoid if I can't tell someone."
This just doesn't even bear thinking about.
"We have an anal tab."
Yes, yes we do - and by 'we' I mean sexualwellbeing.com
"Too bad we don't have a marshmallow shooter that shoots butt plugs."
And that my friends, would be the product that finally married 2 of our best selling products.
And finally, my own quote:
"I could easily get 300 butt plugs."
My mother would be so proud.
Monday, July 12, 2010
World Cup 2010 goes to.....Spain
After following the World Cup from inception to finale this year, I wondered what it was that had me rooting for the Dutch. I mean normally, you couldn't pry me away from Brazil or Argentina.
But watching yesterday's match, the answer finally dawned on me. I totally identified with the Dutch team. Here was Spain; the arrogant, overwhelming favorite, with a classically beautiful soccer-playing style. And here were the Dutch; scrappy, tenacious, not always pretty - but definitely physical. And they made Spain sit up and look - hard. They took them through regulation, and into the second period of OT. In fact, Spain had to be one man up on the Dutch before they could score, and in the end it was 1-0 for the annointed ones.
So by God yes..I identify with the Dutch. My opponents may be more gifted or 'chosen' - but they will never be more tenacious or determined than I. Never, ever, turn your back on me (or the Dutch!) because we will take your horses, your ball, your friends, your game and your fans....and you'll be left wondering what the he** just happened. And in the end, if you do manage to beat us, we will leave you broken and exhausted from the effort.
But watching yesterday's match, the answer finally dawned on me. I totally identified with the Dutch team. Here was Spain; the arrogant, overwhelming favorite, with a classically beautiful soccer-playing style. And here were the Dutch; scrappy, tenacious, not always pretty - but definitely physical. And they made Spain sit up and look - hard. They took them through regulation, and into the second period of OT. In fact, Spain had to be one man up on the Dutch before they could score, and in the end it was 1-0 for the annointed ones.
So by God yes..I identify with the Dutch. My opponents may be more gifted or 'chosen' - but they will never be more tenacious or determined than I. Never, ever, turn your back on me (or the Dutch!) because we will take your horses, your ball, your friends, your game and your fans....and you'll be left wondering what the he** just happened. And in the end, if you do manage to beat us, we will leave you broken and exhausted from the effort.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Back from the Big A
And for you race-trackers - no I don't mean Aqueduct. I was in New York over the weekend/beginning of the week and am just back in Seattle today.
It was a busy - but great week, and I have plenty of random thoughts on my brief, but packed stay.
1) I do believe I was served by Lafayette (True Blood) on Sunday night. Little restaurant in Greenwich called Caffe del Mare - great food, great people watching, and as noted above - fun service.
2) Grey Goose = yes. Slipping a tequila shot in on un-suspecting me = cruel and unusual punishment :-) You know who you are...and one day...just you wait! LOL LOL LOL!
3) Central Park Zoo was great. It is a smaller zoo - so they don't do as much - but what they do, they do very well. LOVED the polar bear!
4) Jacob and I didn't exactly SEE Vince Neal - however, we had dinner Tuesday night, and a back area was curtained off and lit up. Our waiter told us Vince Neal was filming a new video there. So apparently, when drugstore and Savings are in the same vicinity - magic happens.
5) And yes, my mother would be so proud. My buddy Mark, in accepting the award I presented, let the world know that I was one of the cool things that happened to him in the last year. Specifically, meeting me and that I sell sex toys online. Awesome!
It was a busy - but great week, and I have plenty of random thoughts on my brief, but packed stay.
1) I do believe I was served by Lafayette (True Blood) on Sunday night. Little restaurant in Greenwich called Caffe del Mare - great food, great people watching, and as noted above - fun service.
2) Grey Goose = yes. Slipping a tequila shot in on un-suspecting me = cruel and unusual punishment :-) You know who you are...and one day...just you wait! LOL LOL LOL!
3) Central Park Zoo was great. It is a smaller zoo - so they don't do as much - but what they do, they do very well. LOVED the polar bear!
4) Jacob and I didn't exactly SEE Vince Neal - however, we had dinner Tuesday night, and a back area was curtained off and lit up. Our waiter told us Vince Neal was filming a new video there. So apparently, when drugstore and Savings are in the same vicinity - magic happens.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Kentucky Derby 136 - Friday update
At this point I am prepared to move Stately Victor up and Super Saver down a bit. SV had an awesome last gallop over the track, his pedigree scream off track…and looking at footage…visually he just looks great. I still like Super Saver; if you like stats, 2-word named horses have won 70 Derbys, and coming out of the 4 hole has produced 10 winners. Also from the Stat Factory – Dean’s Kitten has 2-word name, and comes out of the 8 spot which has also produced 10 winners.
So - in my top flight I have
Awesome Act
Lookin' At Lucky
Stately Victor
2nd flight for use in Exotics
Super Saver
Paddy O'Prado
Mission Impazible
Ice Box
Dean's Kitten
If you want the longshot bomb - how about Conveyance? They are going to send this horse from the gate. He may shake loose to an easy lead in the slop, and like War Emblem, never look back.
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