Wow...what a run!

In more ways than one! Sunday I headed out to Emerald Downs for the Longacres Mile. I have a lot of really great memories of Mile Day at Longacres, both as a fan and as a groom, then ponygirl. Getting those ponies dressed up in the racing colors and braided etc was always fun, and definintely something we looked forward to!

Anyway - 2009 edition! Its like family reunion day almost - everyone comes up for the Mile. I saw Connie Roberts, Joe and Sally Steiner (Joe and I have quite a few win pictures together from back in the day - but none of us in street clothes LOL!), Bubba (now the color man), Selso, Martine, god..can't list everyone! And of course Lisa, Jessie and Kyrie. It was a packed house, I cashed way more than I lost (always a good thing) and the big race was a thriller..right down to the end with Assessment beating out Awesome Gem. Even watched the races at Del Mar - and saw Amir ride. He still looks as pretty as anyone out there, and better than most, on a horse. Thought he was going to nurse that 43-1 shot Romeo all the way, but got swallowed up at the 1/16th pole.

On to the After Party! Lots of fun, food, drink - Laffit Pincay Jr. still looks fantastic. So much fun. Then Las Marg with everyone -and well that's enough of that..haha..those who were there know, and those who weren't will probably find out from their friends...double hah! Thanks to PGFH2, Kyrie and Jessie - big hugs and much love to you guys!

Monday I rode the Mighty (sorta) and headed to work...where I toiled for all of like 2 hours before going to the Seahawk practice. So cool...sitting on the grass, facing the lake, football football football! Lofa Tatupu right there! Got lots of autographs after - the players were awesome about it - I thought Matt would swoon when Bumpus signed his jersey.

When I finally got home - it was check off and check out for the night. But man what a 2 day run!

Thunderbird, June 2009 West Coast Classic

Monday – June 22, 2009
We actually left for Thunderbird Show Park (in beautiful Langley, BC, Canada!) reasonably on time. If you knew us well, you’d understand that this was a significant accomplishment! On the trailer were Sudden Image (Cash), Finishing Touch (Toby), Sienna (Sissy) and of course…Oberon (The Mighty Puckstar). Carting along all of the horse’s gear and wardrobe were me – driving The Mighty’s rolling tack trunk (aka Honda CRV), Nancy and Emily Wollebeck driving a second horse trailer with the 4 equine star’s food and nutrition needs, as well as additional (!) tack trunks o’stuff, Phil (aka Pinky), Debbie and Tessa Hingston toting all of Tessa’s stuff, and Sid and Tiffany Odgers (not overloaded). We arrived at the show park uneventfully, unpacked, unloaded and set up, and took the horses on a trail walk to stretch their legs and look around. We tried to go to The Shark for dinner after checking into our hotel (which involved many trips to and from the parking lot and monopolization of the luggage carts), but got kicked out. Not for unruly behavior, but for minors. Soooo…off we go to Red Robin which managed to satisfy everyone’s appetite. Afterwards Tessa, Emily and Tiffany went to the hotel pool, I hit the gym (I know…what the??!) and then it was lights out.

Tuesday – June 23, 2009
Today is schooling day – otherwise known as The Day of Chaos and Mayhem. I ate a good breakfast at our Holiday Inn (hereafter known as Ho-Inn) and tucked a bagel in the bag for later. Teri certainly had a busy day – putting a training ride on each horse first and then riders up for a schooling round. The Mighty took it all in stride (haha…pun intended) and afterwards we went for a trail ride to cool out. I should add that he was a perfect gentleman by himself on the trail right up to the end when he got spooked and spun and tried to run back the way he came. Sigh…..we got turned around and finished our ride with a few giant stallion-like snorts. I should add here that Monday and Tuesday were beautiful days weather-wise, and yes, this will be significant later. Horses were bathed, wrapped and the schedule for Wednesday was consulted. Quote from Michelle: “What? I show tomorrow? I thought I didn’t show until Thursday. Umm..good thing someone told me.” We went back to the Ho-Inn and they were so nice and accommodating; they let us use the common breakfast room to spread out, order in pizza, and clean mountains of tack. David (Teri’s son) arrived and everyone hit the hay.

Wednesday – June 24, 2009
Dawned….wet…VERY wet. As in….you can see the rain in the photos quite clearly wet. As in….holy **** are we back in Monroe wet. Luckily Thunderbird has awesome all-weather footing and it drained and held up beautifully. Lynn Kingsley and Laurie Rosen-Ritt, 2 fellow barn-riders showed up for the day to lend support. Poor Lynn, the last time she came out to watch The Mighty was on flood-day at Monroe in April. Maybe she’d stay drier just reading the recaps. Teri actually did The Mighty in a couple of classes today, leaving with a 6th out of a large field of LARGES (haha..see how I did that..worked in another Pun?). I dressed and rode w/water dripping down my neck, in my face, well everywhere really. 2 jumping classes and then I bailed on the flat class (see my clever reference to flooding again heehee?). We took a 6th in each class. Hooray.

With the horses wrapped, blanketed and all snug in their stalls we repaired to the Ho-Inn for another evening of tack cleaning, this time with lasagna and pasta delivered! Our fellow barn-mate Jessica Gaylord arrived, and the girls and David promptly made plans to initiate Barn Wars I. Stealthy like Ninjas…well Ninjas who get caught skulking by horse trailers I guess…but TP, duct tape or baling twine? Tent, cart or sign? What does a Ninja say when they get caught? Jessica and I had every intention of going, but somehow slept through our wake-up knock (ahem!)

Thursday – June 25, 2009
Dawned…only marginally better than Wednesday. At least we could slow the pace of the ark-building. After another convenient (and complimentary!) hotel breakfast (and a stop at Starbucks!), we headed to the show park. It should be noted here that Jessica was spending her summer vacation hanging out and helping out at the horse show – in the rain. There was not a lot of showing going on today – 2 classes, no ribbons. I think with the weather everyone was actually relieved to be done at a reasonable hour. And of course then the rain stopped.

I must interject here, where I was when I heard the news about Michael Jackson. Since the rain stopped, and the sun came out, several of us (me, Jessica, Emily, Nancy, and Tessa) were sitting on the grass bank by the Grand Prix field watching some of the jumping classes. Yes..at that point it was dry enough to sit on the grass..go figure. Ned Coffin, the announcer gave the news over the sound system and it was actually a shock. I didn’t truly believe it until he started playing the Michael Jackson and Jackson5 catalog. Each song had us singing along, and sort of dancing along on the grass. Looking around at other folks – they were doing exactly the same thing. It made me think that, no matter what you thought of the man himself, he left us an incredible musical legacy – spanning time, generations, and place. And then about the time I was having this profound thought, Tuffy (Teri’s Jack Russel) decided to run out onto the Grand Prix field w/Jessica chasing him yelling “Tuffy Come Back Here!” We ended up having dinner at a place next to the hotel called simply “The Pub”. Now that name should be a giveaway, but the manager assured Carl (Emily’s father who also arrived on Tuesday) and I, in his Russian gangsta accent, that minors would certainly be allowed…on this side of the partition. Oh boy. Some execrable karaoke could be heard over in the bar area, so being responsible adults, we decided ‘why not’. I also took the opportunity to remind Carl that, as a lip-syncher, I was in good company with Whitney Houston and Britney Spears. Dinner was actually okay – although it was fairly clear the waitress was used to a more..ahem..masculine bar crowd.

Friday - June 26, 2009
At last, sun! And our busiest show day! 4 jumping classes and 2 flat classes. But this was definitely a hurry up and wait day as well. Tiffany and Cash showed earliest and got some good ribbons. I am honestly not going to remember the classes all that well, it’s sort of a blur – but that also means nothing went hideously wrong! I think we got away with a couple of 2nds, and a 3rd in jumping, and a 5th on the flat. A pretty good day I’d say. Emily and Tessa also got some good ribbons, and we took the horses on a trail ride to cool them out. By the time we finished taking care of them, it was after 8:30 – so we hit the A&W for some frosty root beer floats! Jessica and I were up late obsessively watching Michael Jackson videos.

Saturday – June 27, 2009
Up for another tasty breakfast, run to Starbucks, and off to the show park. Wraps off, stroll through the trails to stretch our legs, and settle in for another long wait until our classes. Tiffany rode very well, and I believe was Reserve Champion in one of her divisions. Finally it was our turn. We actually had an end fence in one of our Equitation classes that SOMEone looked at HARD..but we jumped it (together) anyway . We ended up Champion in that Equitation division and got a nice cooler, and Emily was reserve! Then we had a “Low” (read..warm-up) class and we got 5th in a field of 32 mixed pro and amateur riders. I don’t remember much about the flat class, other than that Emily, Tessa, and I worked well together to give each other space (especially Sis!) when passing and keeping an eye on each other. The jumping went well and we got another 2nd (I think). Horses walked, and wrapped and it was time for the party EVERYone waits for – the Duct Tape and Garbage Bag Fashion Show! Every costume or outfit must be made of duct tape and/or garbage bags. People are so creative. There were Island Girls, Gold-Digger, Surrey Road Block, Warsteiner beer folks, Wedding ball and chain, and the winners – The Simpsons! (you can see pictures in my Facebook TBird album or go to the TBird show park website). While the judges were deliberating, Emily scooped up Tessa and bodily carried her to the runway, where we joined in a big ol’ group Thriller dance en homage to Michael Jackson. Much hilarity as I tried to remember more of the dance (which of course came back to me much later..and after beer). Finally back to the hotel for one more night in of tack cleaning and pizza.

Sunday – June 28, 2009
Ugh, all packed back into The Mighty’s rolling tack trunk, breakfast and check out. You know the drill by now, show park, unwrap, walk, WAIT. Today is just 2 classes, the Hunter Classic and a Stakes Class (both for $$). For the Hunter Classic – you get to wear your formal tails if you have them (and I do!) I figured I just had to ride up to the level of my wardrobe.

The course was a little confusing – the first round was 10 fences. Usually there are 8 in a “normal” hunter class. But for a Classic you ride a first round, receive your score, top 10 are called back to ride a 2nd shortened round, scores are combined..winner announced. Horses should be bold, yet mannerly, formful and scopey over the fences and move at one steady pace all the way around. It’s the “artistic” class as I like to call it. Not sure how this happened – but right away, The Mighty and I got into “the zone”. I only really remember this happening twice before showing, once with Beau, and 3 years ago at the Evergreen Classic with The Mighty. It’s hard to explain, but everything slows down, and EVERYTHING goes exactly as you planned and you see everything miles before it happens and inside your head it goes ‘ding’ and you know. This first round was exactly like that, and I knew it and I didn’t care what the score was going to be. But – it was an 80 – which is a great score and miles better than anything we’ve gotten before. I could have gone home extremely happy on that! But hold up, I have to wait out the remaining first rounds, and then do round 2. And people keep telling you “you’re still on top, you’re still in the lead” arrggghh..no pressure! Finally we went in for our second round – 7 fences. And of course our opening fence was not particularly stylish..not a chip, not a launch – but nothing like the quality of the first round. So of course I got mad and rode the other 6 great. We ended up with a 77, but now we have to sweat it out. I was also disappointed in myself for letting my insane need to over-analyze each fence possibly wreck the class. Emily had a phenomenal round on Toby and got an 81! But combined with her first round score it wasn’t enough to pass us. Finally it was over and we had clung to the win by the hair on The Mighty’s chinny chin-chin. Woo Hoo – VICTORY GALLOP! I have always wanted one – and Ring Steward Susannah told me to go for it! Emily was 3rd and Tessa 5th – so I looked down the line and said ladies – prepare to gallop! The Mighty also added another cooler to his wardrobe with the win, along with a paycheck! The Stakes class seemed almost anti-climatic – we got 4th, and ended up Reserve Champion for that Hunter Division. So not a bad haul at all!

Time to pack ‘em up and move ‘em out. If you didn’t think my story was interesting before – how about if I tell you how I was stopped at the border for possibly being a tall African-American male? And how Jessica just followed me into the Border office because she thought that’s what you were supposed to do? After about 20 minutes – I think they realized that I really was just a short-ish white female, and let us go. Maybe they were just bored and looking for a diversion. But somewhere out there is another Michelle Brown (hard to believe, I know) who doesn’t look a thing like me.

Lots of action at this show; drama, rain, sun, ninja hits and barn wars 1, we set fire to a golf cart (totally accidentally I swear), got kicked out of one club, great placings for everyone, a Championship and Reserve Championship for the Mighty, including a victory gallop for us when we won the Hunter Classic.

Quick Hits:
NINJAS! Mount Up!
Early morning trail walks in the Forest Arden
“We’re together, but not like that, not that there’s anything wrong with that”
“I love you man. No really, I love you man, you’re my best friend..we should do this more often.”
First golf cart – no go, Second golf cart – FIRE! (accidentally, we didn’t MEAN to set it on fire), Third golf cart – SURVIVOR.
To the jump crew in the schooling ring on Tuesday – Head’s up she’s jumping that jump, Heads up, HEADS UP, MOVE!!!!
Ah the rain – following me around like my best friend
FINALLY got to watch SYTYCD!
Thinking Ned was making a sick joke about MJ and then realizing it was true
Michelle and Jessica do yoga on the Grand Prix bank
Pole dancing really can pay for horse shows – well maybe
The Mighty getting a round of applause from a TBird park maintenance person who watched him do his airs above the ground in turnout
Slow Starbucks and crazy psycho parking lot
“love you long time” – see…offering to move up in the jumping order will always make the Ring Steward your friend
Huge thanks to Nancy and Debbie for organizing dinner every night! And to Carl and Pinky for making me laugh every day! “Inside leg to outside rein!”
And naturally to Teri – what a ride (hee hee..couldn’t resist one last pun!)

So – as those who know me know I like to do..I have..ahem…rearranged a few lyrics from some MJ songs to sort of ‘capture’ if you will..the flavor of this show. Answer key to ‘real’ songs below.

1) He rocks in his paddock all day long, leaping and squealing and playing along. All the cutie mares up and down the street, love to see The Mighty do his Lipizzaner leap.

2) In the schooling ring, trainer’s gonna show you, how to ride a class, how to jump in, then out, add the two, listen to me that’s all you gotta do. A B C, simple as counting 1 2 3. Easy as Do Re Mi, A B C, 1 2 3, Mighty you and me!

3) Rythmatic, acrobatic, he’s a dynamite attraction. When he goes through the gate he comes alive, yeah he knows what he’s doin’, he’s super bad now. He’s geared to take the class, he’s a jump, jump, jump, jump jumpin’ machine!

4) Don’t blame it on the sunshine, don’t blame it on the rainy days, blame it on the boogie (man jump)! (Sissy’s stop)

5) You’ve been hit, you’ve been TP’d by, some smooth ninjas!

6) Do you remember the time, when we scored 80? I’ll always remember the time we won the Hunter Classic!

7) They’re out to get you, competitors closing in from every side. They will dispossess you, unless you go in that ring and ride. Now is the time, for you and I to get our act together. All through the round, we work it out as one and make the judge see…That we’re a thriller, killer pair. after watching our round no one else can compare – we’re thrillers, a killer pair!

8) As I turn up the collar on, my favorite hunt coat, I, see rains blowin’ pretty hard. I see other horses in the warm up ring, can’t hardly see a dang thing, who am I, nearly blind, pretending I can even see.



1) Rockin’ Robin
2) ABC
3) Dancin’ Machine
4) Blame it on the Boogie
5) Smooth Criminal
6) Remember the Time
7) Thriller
8) Man in the Mirror

Some other favorites to go back and re-listen to:

Got To Be There
Dirty Diana
You Are Not Alone
Billy Jean
Dangerous
Unbreakable
Leave Me Alone
Scream
Get Down on It
JAM
Bad
Don’t Stop Till You Get Enough
Human Nature
Wanna Be Startin’ Somthing
Pretty Young Thing (PYT)
Rock With You
The Way You Make Me Feel
Black or White
Enjoy Yourself
I Just Can’t Stop Loving You

Random Friday Thoughts

Random Thoughts for a Friday:

1) I'm currently reading "The Horse God Built: The Untold Story of Secretariat, the World's Greatest Racehorse" by Lawrence Scanlan. I collect horse racing literature - and have lots of items that are now out of print. This is still around, but makes for an interesting perspective on the Secretariat story. For one thing - it focuses more on Secretariat's groom Eddie (Shorty) Sweat. Having been a racehorse groom I can tell you that no one - NO ONE - pays attention to the men and women who are most responsible for getting these horses to the races. More to come on this interesting read as I finish it.

2) I'm continually puzzled and disappointed by people. I'm in line at a local retail establishment, and the associate asks to see the identification of the woman who has just handed over her credit card as payment. This self-absorbed, over-indulged, insecure woman proceeds to rant at the poor associate, practically flings her driver's license at her, then proceeds to bitch and gripe under her breath until receiving her bag and making her ungraceful exit. Frankly - I'm more upset when associates DON'T ask to see ID when presented with a Visa/MC. But that's beside the point - this is exactly the kind of woman I'd like to slap and tell to get over herself. But, she is also exactly the kind of woman men fall all over themselves for - and then complain about how high maintenance she is. See? Puzzling and disappointing.

3) I am getting very excited for the trip to Thunderbird Show Park for the West Coast Classic. I would like to think the Mighty is excited as well.

4) Just finished Season 3 of my Buffy the Vampire Slayer Start From the Very Beginning Marathon. Good times - and dang James Marsters is hot.

5) I cannot say how much I feel the call of the track. I miss it. I dream about it, literally. Its a precarious ledge I teeter on - one solid push and I'm lost. The Mighty has a large responsibility - he is what is keeping me somewhat grounded. Without him, I probably would be long gone.

Tough Week

I'm out of sorts today, with all kinds of things on my mind - its been a very tough week.

1) One of my first bosses, and someone who was really like a father figure/mentor/friend to me is in quite a bad way, and not expected to live much longer. Its funny how, at the time, you are living in such a silo, and don't realize how someone is influencing your life. Over the years since I worked for him, I have frequently found myself quoting him "people worry about the mice while the lions eat the cheese", and in many cases emulating him. He had faith that an 18 y.o. would make it to NoCA and be able to focus enough to actually work for him. While I wasn't always out of trouble, I can (in hindsight) see his firm hand keeping me, certainly not on the straight and narrow, but most definitely on track. I learned a lot of what I know about people, what to tolerate from them, horses, and so much more from he, and his wife. More about all of those years in a later blog.

2) The Mighty Puck Star is out of the Pacific Northwest Hunter Jumper show next week. He just isn't 100%, and call me crazy, but I'd rather scratch, get him right, and look forward to Thunderbird in Canada in June. Sucks to lose the money though.

3) I read an article the other day positing that children are ruder than every now-days. And that it is the parents who have created the situation by over-empowering their little darlings, and teaching them that nothing they do could possibly be wrong. Way to give your kids false self-esteem - instead of legitimately building it through accomplishment. Anyway, I am now, and shall thankfully remain, childless. Particularly avoiding the above kind of little monsters.

What I do know, is there is a whole generation of adults (and it shames me that I am *in* that generation, though thankfully not of their mindset) that take very little responsibility for their lives. They spend years and who knows how much money to tell their therapists how it's everyone else's fault but their own that their lives didn't turn out as planned, or they have mommy issues, or ...the list goes on. Come on you whiny piss-ants...at a certain point in your life you look at people around you, pick, choose and emulate the traits you most admire. YOU decide the person you will be. And if you have problems, suck it up and deal with them.

4) Here's another thing - why are people so afraid of failure? Its a great learning tool. Admit you effed up - move on. If people are going to judge you based on that - ditch them. Do you REALLY have time and space in your life to put up with those kind of people? I have sadly, seen too many people close to me let what other people think virtually run their life.

Derby and Horseshow next week

Well what a race! Mine That Bird got the perfect textbook ride from BooBoo Borail - Cajun homeboy showed 'em what riding is! I'm happy for all the connections. What class the trainer and owner showed Sunday morning after the Derby. They stood outside the Derby museum, where people were coming to see the newly dedicated Barbaro sculpture, and gave away each and every rose from the Derby wreath. They answered questions, posed for photos, signed autographs, and reminded fans that it really is all about the horse. There are a whole lot of folks who could learn a lesson there.

As for me and The Mighty - we are off to the Pacific NW Hunter/Jumper show next week. Cross your fingers for better weather than we are having in our area right now.

The NW (Seattle area specifically) sucks. Don't let anyone tell you it doesn't. If the weather doesn't get you, the politics, Green-Nazis, or the PC-Police will!

Thursday KY Derby Update 2009

Weather change, a late work - the latest:

I’d bet WPS on I Want Revenge only if you don’t mind playing a favorite. BUT apparently rain IS forecast for Derby Day – so, at a bit of a price, I’d bet WPS on Freisan Fire.

There are horses that have run on synthetic surfaces and never touched mud on race-day – so I would move down the following:
Pioneerof the Nile
Chocolate Candy
Hold Me Back

I move the following horses up:
Regal Ransom (tactical speed in the slop is always dangerous)
Freisan Fire (see Regal Ransom, also won LA Derby in slop)
Papa Clem (sharp final blow out this morning..ran 2nd to FF in LA Derby in slop)

For my exotics, I’d wheel the following (in order of preference):
Freisan Fire
Desert Party (now sort of rethinking this horse – as he did not gallop well over the track this morning)
Papa Clem (who I originally tossed, but have moved up based on track conditions)
I Want Revenge
Dunkirk
Regal Ransom

Kentucky Derby 2009 - Commentary and Analysis

Subject to revision right up to Saturday!

Right about the time I felt like I had a pace scenario, and the race played out in my head, along comes another crack, some sore shins, and a whole new race. The Derby is very competitive this year, with at least 10 truly quality horses. Trying to separate running styles, pedigree for distance, and how they’ve trained is a tough task (but one I love) – but throw in this synthetic vs. dirt track and it becomes more of a crap shoot than usual!

One more item of interest- it is entirely possible the best horse in America right now is not in the race. It is probable that the horse is not even male – but the filly Rachel Alexandra. She is a freak and a monster and a wrecking ball – and the boys better hope she doesn’t decide to take them on anytime soon.

On a fast track – you’ll have the usual cavalry charge up front with Join In the Dance, Regal Ransom, maybe General Quarters, Papa Clem, Freisan Fire, Flying Private and Musket Man. Second flight looks like Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Desert Party, Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird, Atomic Rain, Nowhere to Hide, Mine That Bird and West Side Bernie. Content to bide their time in back will be Dunkirk ( a bit more in touch with the field than in Florida), Hold Me Back, Advice and Mr. Hot Stuff.

If they are going fast up front (i.e. Join In the Dance and Regal Ransom can’t slow the pace) then look for the second flighters to swallow them before they turn for home, and the stone closers to be on a roll. The stretch is impossibly long, so it will be the horses that find their final gear and get a clean run that finish 1-2-3.

Here’s how I rate them:

I’ll address the 2 major scratches up front.

Quality Road: regally bred, impressive winner of the Florida Derby in his last start, but afflicted with A.P. Indy and Unbridled’s Song hooves. A.P. Indy scratched the morning of the 1992 Derby, and went on to win the Peter Pan and Belmont that year. Unbridled’s Song ran in the Derby w/his quarter crack and was 5th to Grindstone in 1996. Quality Road came up w/a bit of blood after galloping Sunday at Belmont, and the connections have put the horse ahead of their Derby Dreams. Kudos to them, but we lost a nice horse who was a likely presser, and one of my original selections from the race.

Square Eddie: I confess I was partial to this horse since my ex’es video company filmed his comeback in a series of vignettes for YouTube. He ran a good race in the Coolmore Lexington, 3rd behind Advice (who went from last to 1st). His sore shins have cropped up again, and he will again be rested – possibly for the Preakness.

So, aside from those two, here are my notes from the past few months of prep races, and this week’s works. The number next to the horse indicates his post position after Wednesday morning’s draw.

Love Them:

10 - Regal Ransom: By Distorted Humor (you may remember Funny Cide) out of a Red Ransom mare. One of these years, and it will be soon, the Dubai Sheikhs will win the Derby. This horse ran off with the UAE Derby, upsetting his more heavily favored stablemate, Desert Party. Of the speed horses, he seems the quality. If any of these colts is going to pull a War Emblem (see Derby 2002) he could be it. Look for him to be in front, or if (non-contender) Join In The Dance guns it (as his trainer claims they will) – just in behind him. These 2 speedsters are right next to each other in the gate, so it will be interesting to see if RR lets the other go on a bit. IF there is a speed duel up front would set up very well for:

19 - Desert Party: By Street Cry (IRE) out of a Tabasco Cat mare. See first sentence in Regal Ransom’s paragraph. This had been the more highly regarded of the 2 colts, and he looked like he might get there in the UAE Derby, but (in my view after watching the tape) flattened out a bit at the end. He certainly seems to be enjoying Churchill Downs though. He was on the track Monday to work, hooked his work mate, blew by him, then, while galloping out, had West Side Bernie in his sights and put him away as well, all seemingly without turning a hair. With speed in front of him, he can sit to the rear of mid-pack and come running the last ¼. And a good thing too - speed is drawn inside him, he is going to be shuffled WAY back early…

15 - Dunkirk: By A.P. Indy out of an Unbridled’s Song mare. You really have to see his Florida Derby; though he ran 2nd that day to Quality Road, it was the most visually stunning move I’ve seen in a while – and it was only his 3rd lifetime start! He is very lightly raced, and it’s said that Derby winners need a foundation. The thing about the Derby is, every time a rule is written it gets broken. Do I think Dunkirk is talented enough to win this with so little experience? Well Big Brown did it a year ago (3 starts coming in). I think this is a very talented colt, and he’s going to reach deep in what will be a very stiff, though not impossible task. He arrived at Churchill today (Wed) and had his last real work at Palm Meadows Saturday.

16 - Pioneerof the Nile: Regally bred (Empire Maker out of a Lord at War (ARG) mare) and made to get the distance. Would love to sit right about where Desert Party should be and then pounce on that early speed. Worked in 1:01 for 5f Monday – but seemed to really glide over the ground. This last is significant, since his races have all come on synthetic surfaces, and Churchill is dirt. If you go by his works, and physical presence, he will be tough to deny. But I remain just a bit worried about making a switch from polytrack to dirt in his biggest race.

13 - I Want Revenge: By Stephen Got Even out of a Roy mare. He played bridesmaid to Pioneerof the Nile in CA on the synthetic surface. Then he went East, and hit the dirt. Won the Gotham, and then, in a Wood Memorial in which nothing seemed to go his way (broke dead last, wall of horses at the 1./4 pole) and still cruised home. Went a good ½ mile in :47 and 1/5. He’ll be ridden by Joe Talamo – if you watched “Jockeys” on Animal Planet earlier this year, you’ll be familiar with him. After watching his Wood Memorial – I think you can place this horse just about anywhere and get a piece of the action at the end. Ideally I think he’d like to be mid-pack; he is a bit more tightly wound than some others, so the 13 hole will force him to stand a bit in the gate – but good spot to break from.

Like Them:

5 - Hold Me Back: Class breeding (Giant’s Causeway out of an Unbridled’s Song mare) and connections (Bill Mott – trainer of Cigar), but needs to take a step forward and maybe lay a bit closer (i.e. not let the field get away from him). It’s possible – his last work was good, he collared his work mate, then went from a length in front to like 8 in front with barely a flick of the rider’s wrist. But – and like Pioneerof the Nile it’s a big one – this colt is unplaced in his lone dirt start (last year’s Remsen to Old Fashioned). Was he just a late maturing 2yo? Or is he a synthetic surface runner?

11 - Chocolate Candy: By Candy Ride (ARG) out of a Seattle Slew mare – bred for the distance for sure! Ran 2nd to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby last out. Had his last work Monday and went 5f in :59 and change, galloping out the 6f in 1:12 and change. Seems to be handling the Churchill surface – but here again is another horse who has to make the move from synthetic tracks to dirt in the biggest race of his life.

6 - Freisan Fire: By A.P. Indy out of a Dehere mare. Beautiful final work here Monday (looped reins and still went in :57 and change) but I think the Louisiana Derby winner is just a notch below. Larry Jones is training him much the same as he did Hard Spun, who ran 2nd to Street Sense in 2007’s Derby. He comes in off a 7 week layoff, with a presser/stalker strategy. I just see him in mid-flight and tailing off to split the pack at the end. Look for him later in the year to get better. UNLESS it rains – then I would move this horse up into my top flight. His LA Derby came in the slop, and that kind of track always seems to move up a horse with good tactical speed like this colt.

3 - Mr. Hot Stuff: By Tiznow out of a Turkoman mare (and a full brother to Colonel John – 6th in the 2008 KY Derby). Another (like Dunkirk) who comes in with only 3 lifetime starts. Go watch his 3rd place Santa Anita Derby finish. If you like Pioneerof the Nile and/or Chocolate Candy – throw this horse into your mix. He ran a good race between 2 top rated colts, is regally bred, and finished well after finding nowhere to go inside the 1/8 pole. I think he’s probably an immature colt who will round into form – this is a tough task in front of him though.

Use To Fill Out The Exotics:

4 – Advice: By Chapel Royal out of a Hennessy mare. Went last to first in the Lexington, which was supposed to be Square Eddie’s final tune up for the Derby. SE ran 3rd that day – and with his late scratch this week I wonder just how good Advice’s Lexington was. One thing we know for sure – he will come from the clouds, so he may fill out a few exotics if a) there is speed rolling up front and b) he gets any kind of trip. Personally, I think there are horses who are better, will be closer, and will finish higher. Use in the exotics at your peril.

17 - Summer Bird: By Birdstone out of a Summer Squall mare. Broke his maiden, then ran 3rd in Papa Clem’s Arkansas Derby. He was last most of the way and closed to within ¾ of a length of Old Fashioned, who was beat only ½ length by Papa Clem. This horse worked 6f in 1:15 and change on 4/24 – maybe its because I like his breeding, or his close – but you might consider tossing him into your exotics.



Pretenders:
12 - General Quarters: By Sky Mesa out of an Unbridled’s Song mare. This would certainly be the feel good story of the year. The trainer/owner has one horse – General Quarters. Ran 5th in Tampa, then came back with a good win in the Bluegrass here at Keeneland. Last Derby work was 5f in 1:01 and change – very workmanlike but that’s what the trainer said he wanted. I’d love to see this horse win - but I think this is going to be the toughest crowd he’s every hooked, and he is going to be way too close up front to some quality speed. Toss.

7 - Papa Clem: By Smart Strike out of a Belong to Me mare; the upset winner of the Arkansas Derby had a 7f work Monday in 1:29 and change. Old school indeed – most trainers put speed in their horses (not necessarily something I agree with) so this move was refreshing. He ran 2nd to both Freisan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile in earlier starts. Has run on the lead before, but his AK Derby win came with him closing from 5th. Mid-flight, and backing out of it is how I see him running. Toss.

2 - Musket Man: By Yonaguska out of a Fortunate Prospect mare, he’s won his last 2 starts; the Illinois and Tampa Bay Derbies. But, I don’t think this horse wants more than 1 1/8, his works certainly have told me that – and I think he’s a nice horse, but up the track here. Toss.

20 - Flying Private: By 2001 Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus out of an Unbridled mare –he has the pedigree. And D. Wayne Lukas certainly has turned up and won with other seemingly unlikely horses (Charismatic, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone). Ran 2nd 2 races ago to Hold Me Back in the Lane’s End, but a poor 5th last out in the Arkansas Derby to Papa Clem. Toss.

9 - Join In the Dance: By Sky Mesa out of a Devil’s Bag mare. Todd Pletcher (trainer) said they would gun for the lead. Most likely to try to either a) steal it on the front end ala War Emblem (everyone thought he was a 2nd rate speed horse too) or set it up for stablemate Dunkirk. Either way - toss.

1 - West Side Bernie: By Bernstein out of a Gilded Time mare. I think he’s overmatched here, and really a mile and 1/16 is probably the farthest he wants to go. Toss.

8 - Mine That Bird: By Birdstone (the horse that beat Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont) out of a Smart Strike mare. Up the track in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last year, and couldn’t win at Sunland Park (New Mexico). Toss.

14 - Atomic Rain: By Smart Strike out of a Cox’s Ridge mare. Last ran 4th to I Want Revenge in the Wood. He also ran 2nd to Old Fashioned (another Derby favorite out w/injury) in the Remsen. He seems like a nice, useful horse – for Grade III type stakes. Over-matched here – toss.

18 - Nowhere to Hide: By Vindication out of a Seeking the Gold mare. This colt got in with the scratch of Win Willy Wednesday morning. With only a maiden win to his credit, and basically getting his head jerked in each subsequent race, well I feel badly for this colt. Hard to build a competitive spirit when you keep looking at nicer horse’s rears all the time. Run them where they belong. Toss.

So, what does it all mean? I think I Want Revenge has everything I would look for in a winner (and only a couple of drawbacks): He moved up a lot by changing from synthetic to dirt, won his last 2 – in fact overcoming quite a bit to win his last race, came back with a great work this week, looks good physically. The drawbacks for me are that he is a pretty highly strung colt, and the Derby is definitely a test of mental composure as well as physical stamina. Also, I think Joe Talamo is extremely talented, but riding the favorite in the Derby is a huge amount of pressure for a 19yo. That said, unless he loses his mind in the paddock or post parade, and if he can get a relatively uneventful trip, I think he’s your winner.

Granted (and a bit surprisingly to me) I Want Revenge is the favorite. If you want me to give you an alternate winner at a bit more price – take a good look at Hold Me Back or Chocolate Candy - unless the move from synthetic to dirt scares you - then look again at Dunkirk or Freisan Fire.

But when push comes to shove, I have to chuck the horses that have done all their winning on synthetic – or at least relegate them to fill in my 2 and 3 spots. I think Pioneerof the Nile is a classy individual who may well run 2nd.

Dunkirk and Hold Me Back will both be flying late – it will come down to who gets a better trip.

If the track is fast, I think one of the Sheikh’s horses; Regal Ransom or Desert Party is 4th, Mr. Hot Stuff (watch for this horse later in the year when he is more mature!) and Summer Bird roll up for 5th, and the rest are all strung out somewhere behind that.