2011 Kentucky Derby

“Wide open race” may quite possibly be the most over-used phrase on the first Saturday in May – every year. This year is no different, and yet it is. There is no clear cut favorite, a case can be made for almost every single horse in the field, and with the scratch of last year’s juvenile champion Uncle Mo…well it just goes to show that it’s a tough road to Churchill.

That said, the usual saws apply. Look for a horse coming up to a good race, not one that may bounce off an extreme effort last time. Are they training well and holding their weight at Churchill? Do they have a couple of races over a mile and an eighth on their resume? What does their pedigree suggest (i.e. speed bred to speed on top of speed last gen probably does not bode well to go a mile and a quarter). Does the trainer have some experience in the big races (not necessarily need to have won, but has handled the pressure before, and not let armchair quarterbacking change their gameplan). Lastly – who looks like the now horse that just grabs you visually ?

In post position order:
Archarcharch: Won the Arkansas Derby, and is sired by a horse I loved in his Derby year – Arch, out of a Woodman mare. Honestly though, this one makes me go ‘meh’ . Will finish in the first half of the field.

Brilliant Speed: Won the Bluegrass. By Dynaformer out of a Gone West mare. Me thinks his name says it all. *However* if it rains at Churchill Fri/Sat – you should consider keeping the best of the speed horses in your exotics, as speed holds in the slop there. If the track comes up sloppy – use this horse.

Twicetheappeal: Won the Sunland Derby (NM). By Successful Appeal out of a Cormorant mare. BooBoo Borel gets the mount – which may be the best part of this entry. Nope.

Stay Thirsty: Won the Gotham. Beautifully bred; by Bernardini out of a Storm Bird mare. This one may be a live one at good price. I’d see what the track condition is – but I like this horse.

Decisive Moment: Won the Jean Lafitte stakes (second in the Spiral to Animal Kingdom). By With Distinction out of a Dehere mare. Nope.

Comma to the Top: Won the Cashcall Futurity, Generous and Real Quiet Stakes. By Bwana Charlie out of a Stormy Atlantic mare. Um…PVal rides…and I say possible Rose Colored Glasses award here. Back of pack.

Pants on Fire: Won the Louisiana Derby. By Jump Start out of a Capetown mare. I think his pants may be the only thing on fire. He *would* move up in the mud/slop – but I don’t see him winning or even in first half of field.

Dialed In: This is everyone’s hot horse. He won the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes. Beautifully bred by Mineshaft out of a Storm Cat mare. Has the hot rider and trainer hand also going for him. He and Shackleford were 1-2 in FL. So if you like one, you pretty much have to like the other. He *is* the morning line favorite – and friends don’t typically let friends bet the chalk. However, I think it would be foolish to leave him out. Top 4.

Derby Kitten: just won the Coolmore Lexington. By Kitten’s Joy out of a Menifee mare. Nope.

Twinspired: won the WEBN Stakes. By Harlan’s Holiday out of an El Prado mare. Nope.

Master of Hounds: ran second in the UAE Derby. Regally bred by Kingmambo out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. The Euros keep bringing over horses trying to win the Derby, and keep missing. This horse is certainly bred to go the distance, has a US rider w/Garret Gomez – and Aidan O’Brien is one of the great trainers. I can see this horse getting a piece of the Tri or Super fecta pie – but not the win. As lovely has he is, better have tried from over the way, and failed. He’s never run on dirt before – not sure the Derby would be my choice for first start.

Santiva: Won the KY Jockey Club stakes and was second in the Risen Star to Mucho Macho Man. By Giant’s Causeway out of a Smarten mare. Will split the pack.

Mucho Macho Man: Won the Risen Star. By Macho Uno out of a Ponche mare. Mid-pack.

Shackleford: finished second to Dialed In in the Florida Derby. Big old chestnut by Forestry out of an Unbridled mare. Another hot horse that has a lot of people on his bandwagon. Move up in the mud/slop, but I feel like he’s a mid-pack finisher.

Midnight Interlude: Won the Santa Anita Derby. By War Chant out of Groom Dancer. Nope.

Animal Kingdom: Won the Spiral Stakes. By Leroidesanimeaux out of an Acatenango mare. He’s never run on dirt before – not sure the Derby would be my choice for first start, but he’s been training like a…well…animal.

Soldat: Won the Fountain of Youth and With Anticipation stakes. By War Front out of a Coronado’s Quest mare. Have him in my top 4, and moves up in the mud.

Nehro: 2nd in the AK ( to Archarcharch) and LA (to Pants on Fire) Derbies. By Mineshaft out of an Afleet mare. Had a ho-hum final work up to the race – but looks fantastic physically – and I would use him in my top 4.

Watch Me Go: Won the Tampa Bay Derby. By West Acre out of a Deputy Minister mare. Nope – another Rose Colored Glasses contestant.

Top 4:
Stay Thirsty
Dialed In
Nehro
Soldat
(if it rains and is sloppy – must also toss Brilliant Speed in here)

If you don’t like those – how about (as in…these have a good shot if luck fails the top 4):
Shakleford
Archarcharch
Animal Kingdom (mostly because I love his breeding – not so much that he hasn’t raced on dirt)

If you really wanted to – you could fabricate a case for:
Derby Kitten
Master of Hounds
Santiva
Mucho Macho Man
Midnight Interlude

Rose Colored Glasses award:
Twicetheappeal
Decisive Moment
Comma to the Top
Pants on Fire
Twinspired
Watch Me Go

And of course – I may be completely wrong and you should go to the windows on everyone I picked to lose! Here’s to a great…and SAFE..Derby Day for the horses!