With
Eskendereya out - it looks like the Pletcher curse lives on. Poor Todd Pletcher (0-24 in the Derby), what looked like a hot hand at the Wynn in Vegas now looks like slots at the Peppermill in Reno. Not only is the (one-time) favorite out, so is
Rule, and
Interactif. The filly
Devil May Care is in, as are
Discreetly Mine,
Mission Impazible, and
Super Saver. With 70% chance of rain forecast for Saturday,
Super Saver looks like he may be TP’s best chance.
That said however, this thing is wide open now – and all you can hope is that past performances actually have some meaning this Saturday. As I mentioned above, forecast calls for 70% chance of rain (2-3”) Saturday. Slop typically benefits those who can run on or near the lead, and sometimes, the grass horses. At any rate – here we go (horse’s post positions lead their paragraph).
16) If you liked
Eskendereya – you should like
Awesome Act. 3rd in the Wood to a romping winner, AA ripped his shoe off leaving the gate, and got a not-great ride thereafter. He’s well bred top and bottom to get a distance. The 2nd place finisher that day was 13)
Jackson Bend – and he’s getting some attention as a sort of ‘wise-guy’ horse. He’s a nice FL horse, having won 3 of the FL Stallion Stakes series. But I have distance questions about him and his pedigree, and think he’s probably a bit overmatched here.
11) Honestly I don’t know why
Devil May Care is in here. She won a G2 way back in March, and prior to that ran 5th in a G3. The barn is high on her Bonnie Miss win, and her 100 BSF. Either Pletcher thinks the colts are horrendous this year, or he knows something about this filly no one else on the planet does.
1) I want to like
Lookin’ At Lucky – I really do. But I have concerns:
• He will likely be the favorite – so there’s no money to be made there
• He draws the 1 hole on what is going to be a sloppy (at best) track – in a 20 horse field. He is going to need an absolute dream trip – and they DO happen – to win this thing
• 3rd in his last, and winner winner winner prior to that. But even w/the wins – he has a trouble line going back to 3 of his last 4 races.
• Gomez retains the mount; what makes any of us think that this combination will avoid trouble – particularly in a 20 horse field?
That said – he’s working like a monster at Churchill – so hopefully the best 2 yo of his generation will come through.
20) If you like
Lookin’ At Lucky – you probably need to take a hard look at the horse that finished in front of him in the Santa Anita Derby.
Sidney’s Candy shares speed with his stablemate
Line of David, but will probably let that one run on and hope to sit back off him. I love his sire – Candy Ride(ARG) – and if it rains as predicted – I think
Sidney’s Candy may be a good value bet. He moves from the Pro-Ride surface to dirt (actually slop/mud) but I don’t think that’s a deterrent.
The horse that ran 2nd that day –
Setsuko – unfortunately did not draw in to the Derby field (lack of graded earnings). Unfortunately,
Sidney’s Candy drew the 20 hole. Recent history had
Big Brown winning from that spot. However, 3 speed horses are to SC’s immediate inside – imagine they will gun it from the gate, SC should get away well – and unless the rider strangles him – he will still end up about 8 wide into the first turn. It’s possible he may survive that cavalry charge in good position and be able to lead the second flight.
17)
Dublin –hasn’t won a race since last September. He reminds me of another horse trained by DWL –
Editor’s Note. A plodder – they come from the clouds and pick off horses 1 by 1 until they are the only ones left. Usually works best in the Belmont Stakes. Here – in the mud/slop – I don’t think so. He is by
Afleet Alex – who many folks may remember being upset by
Giacomo in the 2005 Derby.
2)
Ice Box – the FL Derby winner is intriguing. Trained by Nick Zito, he was 5th in
Eskendereya’s Fountain of Youth in FL. He had a great work at Churchill on Friday – may be worth making part of your exotics. Draws the 2 hole – had a beautiful work on 4.23 over the slop at Churchill. He’s a closer, so should be able to break well, settle into a good spot in the middle of the second flight or top of the third. He (like more than a few) will need a great trip through traffic to get to the wire on top.
4)
Super Saver ran 2nd in the AK Derby to Line of David. Very well bred (so don’t understand the stupid name); his sire also sired the 2001 Derby winner
Monarchos. This horse has a win over the track (at 2) should run well in the slop/mud, and despite his pitiable name – gets Calvin Borel (winner of last year’s Derby) in the tack. Definitely live.
14)
Mission Impazible –Another from the Pletcher-on-the-schneid stable. Probably would win the horsey ‘model’ competition – and given Saturday’s likely conditions you should not rule him out. He could be a live longshot, picking horses off in the stretch.
7)
American Lion – won the IL Derby in his last out. Speed horse who drew the 7 hole, he figures to jump out to the lead – or share it with a couple others. I don’t think he will be on any winning tickets at the end however.
6)
Stately Victor jumped into contention in the Bluegrass at Keeneland, ending
Odyseus’ and
Aikenite’s hopes of getting into the Derby. His owner is also running for office – and has said winning the Derby and the Senate a dream exacta. He is bred to relish the off going, but I would surprised if he won the race. Best at bottom of exotics.
15)
Discreetly Mine – Another Pletcher horse. Pressed the pace in the LA Derby – folded to finish 4th. With the speed and cover horses in this race – I don’t see him being around at the end.
12)
Conveyance – 2nd to
Endorsement in the Sunland Derby - another Baffert horse. Could be in here to set the pace for LaL to run at – but he’ll have company up front.
5)
Line of David – winner of the AK Derby. Speed horse (one of many in here) and the trainer/owners took Jon Court off (bad Derby karma for sure).
3)
Noble’s Promise – 5th in the AK Derby to
Line of David. He had a disastrous start in that race, and breathing problems coming out of it. He has since scoped clean, but I have questions about his ability to get a mile and a quarter. On the plus side, if you like
Lookin’ At Lucky,
Noble’s Promise has run right up there with him in past efforts. Draws the 3 post, could lay right off early leaders, and get a clean trip home.
8) Call me crazy, (and lots of folks do) but I like
Dean’s Kitten as a live longshot. He looked good winning the Lane’s End at Keeneland on polytrack, and has run well on the grass. I don’t think the mud will be a factor for him – trip definitely will. He’s bred to run all day – I can see him picking off the no-hopers and ending up with a piece of the pie.
10)
Paddy O’Prado – another horse who I think has a chance to upset
Lookin’ At Lucky’s hopes. Bred to run all day, over just about any surface, has trained up a storm, and is absolutely worth including on your tickets.
We then have 3 absolute (seeming) no-hopers who drew in late:
9)
Make Music for Me
18)
Backtalk
19)
Homeboykris
So…what does all this mean? Muddy/sloppy track Saturday.
A cavalry charge to the first turn lead by
Conveyance,
Line of David,
Discreetly Mine and
American Lion.
Sidney’s Candy gets hung out wide, but then tucks in behind along with
Noble’s Promise,
Jackson Bend, Lookin’ At Lucky,
Super Saver and
Awesome Act.
Right behind that group are
Paddy O’Prado,
Ice Box, Dean’s Kitten,
Mission Impazible, and
Stately Victor.
Bringing up the rear is
Dublin.
There are 4 horses who are wild cards and I’m not sure where they will be:
Devil May Care,
Backtalk,
Make Music for Me and
Homeboykris.
By the ½ mile pole, the speed horses are still in front but feeling the 2nd flighters breathing down their necks.
Sidney’s Candy makes a move, but has used up a lot from his horrendous trip around the first turn and just trying to hold position. Of that second flight,
Lookin’ At Lucky,
Super Saver and
Awesome Act are moving strongest.
We’re at the 3/8 pole or so now, and the third flight is beginning their sustained run. I’m looking for
Paddy O’ Prado,
Ice Box and
Dean’s Kitten at this point.
Mission Impazible is trying to get room to run.
Dublin is passing tired horses who are falling back.
Into the stretch, the original 4 speed horses are done. If
Lookin’ At Lucky got any kind of trip, he’s taken the lead, followed by
Awesome Act.
Paddy O’ Prado and
Mission Impazible is coming on late, with
Super Saver trying to hang on for a piece.
Dublin continues to pick up the ones who have thrown in the towel and finishes 5th to save the jock mount.
So who wins?
Lookin’ At Lucky certainly looks best on paper. I would use him in my exotics, and hope he gets a great trip.
And yet….and yet…..I’ve like
Awesome Act for a long time. I think
Eskendereya would have had
Lookin’ At Lucky’s measure in this race, and
Awesome Act just got whomped by him. But give AA a good start and 4 shoes, and I think he comes w/in 4 lengths of
Eskendereya. Was
Eskendereya 4 lengths better than LaL? I believe so....and with that convoluted logic, I believe AA beats LaL.
So. As of Thursday afternoon, I like (in order):
Awesome Act
Lookin’ At Lucky
Super Saver
Paddy O’ Prado
If you need live longshots to toss in the mix for your exotics:
Mission Impozible
Ice Box
Dean’s Kitten
What I truly hope is that every horse and rider has a safe trip and comes back to the barn and jock’s room in good health. Enjoy the Derby everyone – it really is the most exciting 2 minutes in sports.
