Kentucky Derby 2009 - Commentary and Analysis

Subject to revision right up to Saturday!

Right about the time I felt like I had a pace scenario, and the race played out in my head, along comes another crack, some sore shins, and a whole new race. The Derby is very competitive this year, with at least 10 truly quality horses. Trying to separate running styles, pedigree for distance, and how they’ve trained is a tough task (but one I love) – but throw in this synthetic vs. dirt track and it becomes more of a crap shoot than usual!

One more item of interest- it is entirely possible the best horse in America right now is not in the race. It is probable that the horse is not even male – but the filly Rachel Alexandra. She is a freak and a monster and a wrecking ball – and the boys better hope she doesn’t decide to take them on anytime soon.

On a fast track – you’ll have the usual cavalry charge up front with Join In the Dance, Regal Ransom, maybe General Quarters, Papa Clem, Freisan Fire, Flying Private and Musket Man. Second flight looks like Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Desert Party, Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird, Atomic Rain, Nowhere to Hide, Mine That Bird and West Side Bernie. Content to bide their time in back will be Dunkirk ( a bit more in touch with the field than in Florida), Hold Me Back, Advice and Mr. Hot Stuff.

If they are going fast up front (i.e. Join In the Dance and Regal Ransom can’t slow the pace) then look for the second flighters to swallow them before they turn for home, and the stone closers to be on a roll. The stretch is impossibly long, so it will be the horses that find their final gear and get a clean run that finish 1-2-3.

Here’s how I rate them:

I’ll address the 2 major scratches up front.

Quality Road: regally bred, impressive winner of the Florida Derby in his last start, but afflicted with A.P. Indy and Unbridled’s Song hooves. A.P. Indy scratched the morning of the 1992 Derby, and went on to win the Peter Pan and Belmont that year. Unbridled’s Song ran in the Derby w/his quarter crack and was 5th to Grindstone in 1996. Quality Road came up w/a bit of blood after galloping Sunday at Belmont, and the connections have put the horse ahead of their Derby Dreams. Kudos to them, but we lost a nice horse who was a likely presser, and one of my original selections from the race.

Square Eddie: I confess I was partial to this horse since my ex’es video company filmed his comeback in a series of vignettes for YouTube. He ran a good race in the Coolmore Lexington, 3rd behind Advice (who went from last to 1st). His sore shins have cropped up again, and he will again be rested – possibly for the Preakness.

So, aside from those two, here are my notes from the past few months of prep races, and this week’s works. The number next to the horse indicates his post position after Wednesday morning’s draw.

Love Them:

10 - Regal Ransom: By Distorted Humor (you may remember Funny Cide) out of a Red Ransom mare. One of these years, and it will be soon, the Dubai Sheikhs will win the Derby. This horse ran off with the UAE Derby, upsetting his more heavily favored stablemate, Desert Party. Of the speed horses, he seems the quality. If any of these colts is going to pull a War Emblem (see Derby 2002) he could be it. Look for him to be in front, or if (non-contender) Join In The Dance guns it (as his trainer claims they will) – just in behind him. These 2 speedsters are right next to each other in the gate, so it will be interesting to see if RR lets the other go on a bit. IF there is a speed duel up front would set up very well for:

19 - Desert Party: By Street Cry (IRE) out of a Tabasco Cat mare. See first sentence in Regal Ransom’s paragraph. This had been the more highly regarded of the 2 colts, and he looked like he might get there in the UAE Derby, but (in my view after watching the tape) flattened out a bit at the end. He certainly seems to be enjoying Churchill Downs though. He was on the track Monday to work, hooked his work mate, blew by him, then, while galloping out, had West Side Bernie in his sights and put him away as well, all seemingly without turning a hair. With speed in front of him, he can sit to the rear of mid-pack and come running the last ¼. And a good thing too - speed is drawn inside him, he is going to be shuffled WAY back early…

15 - Dunkirk: By A.P. Indy out of an Unbridled’s Song mare. You really have to see his Florida Derby; though he ran 2nd that day to Quality Road, it was the most visually stunning move I’ve seen in a while – and it was only his 3rd lifetime start! He is very lightly raced, and it’s said that Derby winners need a foundation. The thing about the Derby is, every time a rule is written it gets broken. Do I think Dunkirk is talented enough to win this with so little experience? Well Big Brown did it a year ago (3 starts coming in). I think this is a very talented colt, and he’s going to reach deep in what will be a very stiff, though not impossible task. He arrived at Churchill today (Wed) and had his last real work at Palm Meadows Saturday.

16 - Pioneerof the Nile: Regally bred (Empire Maker out of a Lord at War (ARG) mare) and made to get the distance. Would love to sit right about where Desert Party should be and then pounce on that early speed. Worked in 1:01 for 5f Monday – but seemed to really glide over the ground. This last is significant, since his races have all come on synthetic surfaces, and Churchill is dirt. If you go by his works, and physical presence, he will be tough to deny. But I remain just a bit worried about making a switch from polytrack to dirt in his biggest race.

13 - I Want Revenge: By Stephen Got Even out of a Roy mare. He played bridesmaid to Pioneerof the Nile in CA on the synthetic surface. Then he went East, and hit the dirt. Won the Gotham, and then, in a Wood Memorial in which nothing seemed to go his way (broke dead last, wall of horses at the 1./4 pole) and still cruised home. Went a good ½ mile in :47 and 1/5. He’ll be ridden by Joe Talamo – if you watched “Jockeys” on Animal Planet earlier this year, you’ll be familiar with him. After watching his Wood Memorial – I think you can place this horse just about anywhere and get a piece of the action at the end. Ideally I think he’d like to be mid-pack; he is a bit more tightly wound than some others, so the 13 hole will force him to stand a bit in the gate – but good spot to break from.

Like Them:

5 - Hold Me Back: Class breeding (Giant’s Causeway out of an Unbridled’s Song mare) and connections (Bill Mott – trainer of Cigar), but needs to take a step forward and maybe lay a bit closer (i.e. not let the field get away from him). It’s possible – his last work was good, he collared his work mate, then went from a length in front to like 8 in front with barely a flick of the rider’s wrist. But – and like Pioneerof the Nile it’s a big one – this colt is unplaced in his lone dirt start (last year’s Remsen to Old Fashioned). Was he just a late maturing 2yo? Or is he a synthetic surface runner?

11 - Chocolate Candy: By Candy Ride (ARG) out of a Seattle Slew mare – bred for the distance for sure! Ran 2nd to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby last out. Had his last work Monday and went 5f in :59 and change, galloping out the 6f in 1:12 and change. Seems to be handling the Churchill surface – but here again is another horse who has to make the move from synthetic tracks to dirt in the biggest race of his life.

6 - Freisan Fire: By A.P. Indy out of a Dehere mare. Beautiful final work here Monday (looped reins and still went in :57 and change) but I think the Louisiana Derby winner is just a notch below. Larry Jones is training him much the same as he did Hard Spun, who ran 2nd to Street Sense in 2007’s Derby. He comes in off a 7 week layoff, with a presser/stalker strategy. I just see him in mid-flight and tailing off to split the pack at the end. Look for him later in the year to get better. UNLESS it rains – then I would move this horse up into my top flight. His LA Derby came in the slop, and that kind of track always seems to move up a horse with good tactical speed like this colt.

3 - Mr. Hot Stuff: By Tiznow out of a Turkoman mare (and a full brother to Colonel John – 6th in the 2008 KY Derby). Another (like Dunkirk) who comes in with only 3 lifetime starts. Go watch his 3rd place Santa Anita Derby finish. If you like Pioneerof the Nile and/or Chocolate Candy – throw this horse into your mix. He ran a good race between 2 top rated colts, is regally bred, and finished well after finding nowhere to go inside the 1/8 pole. I think he’s probably an immature colt who will round into form – this is a tough task in front of him though.

Use To Fill Out The Exotics:

4 – Advice: By Chapel Royal out of a Hennessy mare. Went last to first in the Lexington, which was supposed to be Square Eddie’s final tune up for the Derby. SE ran 3rd that day – and with his late scratch this week I wonder just how good Advice’s Lexington was. One thing we know for sure – he will come from the clouds, so he may fill out a few exotics if a) there is speed rolling up front and b) he gets any kind of trip. Personally, I think there are horses who are better, will be closer, and will finish higher. Use in the exotics at your peril.

17 - Summer Bird: By Birdstone out of a Summer Squall mare. Broke his maiden, then ran 3rd in Papa Clem’s Arkansas Derby. He was last most of the way and closed to within ¾ of a length of Old Fashioned, who was beat only ½ length by Papa Clem. This horse worked 6f in 1:15 and change on 4/24 – maybe its because I like his breeding, or his close – but you might consider tossing him into your exotics.



Pretenders:
12 - General Quarters: By Sky Mesa out of an Unbridled’s Song mare. This would certainly be the feel good story of the year. The trainer/owner has one horse – General Quarters. Ran 5th in Tampa, then came back with a good win in the Bluegrass here at Keeneland. Last Derby work was 5f in 1:01 and change – very workmanlike but that’s what the trainer said he wanted. I’d love to see this horse win - but I think this is going to be the toughest crowd he’s every hooked, and he is going to be way too close up front to some quality speed. Toss.

7 - Papa Clem: By Smart Strike out of a Belong to Me mare; the upset winner of the Arkansas Derby had a 7f work Monday in 1:29 and change. Old school indeed – most trainers put speed in their horses (not necessarily something I agree with) so this move was refreshing. He ran 2nd to both Freisan Fire and Pioneerof the Nile in earlier starts. Has run on the lead before, but his AK Derby win came with him closing from 5th. Mid-flight, and backing out of it is how I see him running. Toss.

2 - Musket Man: By Yonaguska out of a Fortunate Prospect mare, he’s won his last 2 starts; the Illinois and Tampa Bay Derbies. But, I don’t think this horse wants more than 1 1/8, his works certainly have told me that – and I think he’s a nice horse, but up the track here. Toss.

20 - Flying Private: By 2001 Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus out of an Unbridled mare –he has the pedigree. And D. Wayne Lukas certainly has turned up and won with other seemingly unlikely horses (Charismatic, Thunder Gulch, Grindstone). Ran 2nd 2 races ago to Hold Me Back in the Lane’s End, but a poor 5th last out in the Arkansas Derby to Papa Clem. Toss.

9 - Join In the Dance: By Sky Mesa out of a Devil’s Bag mare. Todd Pletcher (trainer) said they would gun for the lead. Most likely to try to either a) steal it on the front end ala War Emblem (everyone thought he was a 2nd rate speed horse too) or set it up for stablemate Dunkirk. Either way - toss.

1 - West Side Bernie: By Bernstein out of a Gilded Time mare. I think he’s overmatched here, and really a mile and 1/16 is probably the farthest he wants to go. Toss.

8 - Mine That Bird: By Birdstone (the horse that beat Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont) out of a Smart Strike mare. Up the track in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last year, and couldn’t win at Sunland Park (New Mexico). Toss.

14 - Atomic Rain: By Smart Strike out of a Cox’s Ridge mare. Last ran 4th to I Want Revenge in the Wood. He also ran 2nd to Old Fashioned (another Derby favorite out w/injury) in the Remsen. He seems like a nice, useful horse – for Grade III type stakes. Over-matched here – toss.

18 - Nowhere to Hide: By Vindication out of a Seeking the Gold mare. This colt got in with the scratch of Win Willy Wednesday morning. With only a maiden win to his credit, and basically getting his head jerked in each subsequent race, well I feel badly for this colt. Hard to build a competitive spirit when you keep looking at nicer horse’s rears all the time. Run them where they belong. Toss.

So, what does it all mean? I think I Want Revenge has everything I would look for in a winner (and only a couple of drawbacks): He moved up a lot by changing from synthetic to dirt, won his last 2 – in fact overcoming quite a bit to win his last race, came back with a great work this week, looks good physically. The drawbacks for me are that he is a pretty highly strung colt, and the Derby is definitely a test of mental composure as well as physical stamina. Also, I think Joe Talamo is extremely talented, but riding the favorite in the Derby is a huge amount of pressure for a 19yo. That said, unless he loses his mind in the paddock or post parade, and if he can get a relatively uneventful trip, I think he’s your winner.

Granted (and a bit surprisingly to me) I Want Revenge is the favorite. If you want me to give you an alternate winner at a bit more price – take a good look at Hold Me Back or Chocolate Candy - unless the move from synthetic to dirt scares you - then look again at Dunkirk or Freisan Fire.

But when push comes to shove, I have to chuck the horses that have done all their winning on synthetic – or at least relegate them to fill in my 2 and 3 spots. I think Pioneerof the Nile is a classy individual who may well run 2nd.

Dunkirk and Hold Me Back will both be flying late – it will come down to who gets a better trip.

If the track is fast, I think one of the Sheikh’s horses; Regal Ransom or Desert Party is 4th, Mr. Hot Stuff (watch for this horse later in the year when he is more mature!) and Summer Bird roll up for 5th, and the rest are all strung out somewhere behind that.